A Probabilistic Model of Coastal Bluff-Top Erosion in High Latitudes Due to Thermoabrasion: A Case Study from Baydaratskaya Bay in the Kara Sea

A Probabilistic Model of Coastal Bluff-Top Erosion in High Latitudes Due to Thermoabrasion: A Case Study from Baydaratskaya Bay in the Kara Sea

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Arctic coastal erosion demands more attention as the global climate continues to change.Unlike those along low-latitude and mid-latitude, sediments along Arctic coastlines are often frozen, even during summer.Thermal and mechanical factors must be considered together when analysing Arctic coastal BOSCH Serie 6 BFL554MS0B Built-in Solo Microwave - Stainless Steel erosion.

Two major erosion mechanisms in the Arctic have been identified: thermodenudation and thermoabrasion.Field observations of Arctic coastal erosion are available in Baydaratskaya Bay in the Kara Sea.The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic model of thermoabrasion to simulate the measured coastal erosion at two sites where observations suggest thermoabrasion is dominant.

The model simulates two time periods: (a) the summer of 2013 (2012−2013) and (b) the summer of 2017 (2016−2017).A probabilistic analysis is performed to quantify the uncertainties in the model results.The input parameters are assumed to follow normal and lognormal distributions with a 10% coefficient of variation.

Monte Carlo simulation is applied Balance Board to determine the erosion rates for the two different cases.The simulation results agree reasonably well with the field observations.In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed, revealing a very high sensitivity of the model to sea-level changes.

The model indicates that the relation between sea-level rise and thermoabrasional erosion is exponential.